Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучшая актриса второго плана". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Rooney Mara (Carol)
2. Elizabeth Olsen (I Saw the Light)
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
4. Meryl Streep (Suffragette)
5. Ellen Page (Freeheld)

Ниже полный лонг-лист актрис второго плана:

6. Kristen Stewart (Clouds of Sils Maria)
7. Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
8. Julia Walters (Brooklyn)
9. Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy)
10. Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)
11. Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
12. Gugu Mbatha-Row (Concussion)
13. Phylicia Rashad (Creed)
14. Julia Roberts (Money Monster)
15. Shailene Woodley (Snowden)
16. Emayatzy Corinealdi (Miles Ahead)
17. Olivia Cooke (Me and Earl and the Dying Girl)
18. Laura Linney (Genius)
19. Helena Bonham Carter (Suffragette)
20. Kristen Wiig (The Diary of a Teenage Girl)
21. Anne-Marie Duff (Suffragette)
22. Judi Dench (Tulip Forever)
23. Jane Fonda (Youth)
24. Mamie Gummer (Ricki and the Flash)
25. Amy Ryan (Bridge of Spies)
26. Kirsten Dunst (Midnight Special)
27. Melissa Leo (Snowden)

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 9 июля:

Best Picture
1. 'The Revenant'
2. 'Steve Jobs'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'Carol'
5. 'The Danish Girl'
6. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
7. 'The Hateful Eight'
8. 'Suffragette'
9. 'Joy'
10. 'By the Sea'

Best Director
1. A.G. Innaritu, 'The Revenant'.
2. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
3. Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
4. Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Ron Howard, 'In the Heart of the Sea'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Demolition'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Tom Hiddleston, 'I Saw the Light'

Best Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
2. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
5. Lilly Tomlin, 'Grandma'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kurt Russell, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Jeff Daniels, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
4. Ralph Fiennes, 'A Bigger Splash'
5. Harvey Keitel, 'Youth'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Naomi Watts, 'Demolition'
4. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'
5. Elizabeth Olsen, 'I Saw the Light'

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Demolition'
2. 'Joy'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'The Hateful Eight'
5.  'Suffragette'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'Carol'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Freeheld'
4. 'Brooklyn' 
5. 'Steve Jobs'

Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучший актер второго плана". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Michael Keaton (Spotlight)
2. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)
3. Harvey Keitel (Youth)
4. Samuel L. Jackson (The Hateful Eight)
5. Seth Rogen (Steve Jobs)

Ниже полный лонг-лист актеров второго плана:

6. Brendan Gleeson (Suffragette)
7. Bradley Cooper (Joy)
8. Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
9. Kurt Russell (The Hateful EIght)
10. Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina)
11. Steve Carell (Freeheld)
12. Benicio Del Toro (Sicario)
13. Jude Law (Genius)
14. Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
15. Bruce Dern (The Hateful Eight)
16. Benedict Cumberbatch (Black Mass)
17. Stanley Tucci (Spotlight)
18. Tom Holland (In the Heart of the Sea)
19. Jack O'Connell (Money Monster)
20. Matthias Schoenaerts (Far From the Madding Crowd)
21. Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
22. Forest Whitaker (Southpaw)
23. Jesse Eisenberg (The End of the Tour)
24. Alex Baldwin (Untitled Howard Hughes Project)
25. Billy Magnussen (Bridge of Spies)
26. Alexander Skarsgard (The Diary of a Teenage Girl)

Прогноз Брэда Бревета в главной категории от 1 июля:

1. Steve Jobs
2. The Revenant
3. The Danish Girl
4. Carol
5. Joy
6. Bridge of Spies
7. The Walk
8. Inside Out
9. Brooklyn

Ниже полный лонг-лист:

10. Demolition
11. Black Mass
12. The Hateful Eight
13. Money Monster
14. Truth
15. Love & Mercy
16. Ex Machina
17. Our Brand is Crisis
18. Concussion
19. Everest
20. Snowden
21. Mad Max: Fury Road
22. The Diary of a Teenage Girl
23. Youth
24. I Saw the Light
25. Adam Jones
26. A Bigger Splash
27. Spotlight
28. Trumbo
29. Genius
30. Son of Saul
31. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
32. The Program
33. Everybody Wants Some
34. Freeheld
35. Midnight Special
36. Southpaw
37. The Martian
38. Star Wars
39. Straight Outta Compton
40. In the Heart of the Sea
41. Clouds of Sils Maria
42. Suffragette
43. Macbeth
44. The Light Between Oceans45. By the Sea
46. The 33
47. Beasts of No Nation
48. Ricki and the Flash
49. Sicario
50. The Last Face
51. Untitled Howard Hughes Project

Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучший актер". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
3. Michael Caine (Youth)
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
5. Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light)

Ниже полный лонг-лист актеров:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal (Demolition)
7. Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
8. Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
10. Jason Segel (The End of the Tour)
11. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
12. Bradley Cooper (Adam Jones)
13. Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies)
14. Will Smith (Concussion)
15. Jake Gyllenhaal (Southpaw)
16. George Clooney (Money Monster)
17. Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)
18. Michael Fassbender (Macbeth)
19. Colin Firth (Genius)
20. Robert Redford (Truth)
21. Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
22. Ben Foster (The Program)
23. Matt Damon (The Martian)
24. Tom Hardy (Legend)
25. Warren Beatty (Untitled Howard Hughes Project)
26. Joseph Gordon-Levitt (The Walk)
27. Michael Shannon (Midnight Special)
28. Tom Hardy (Mad Max: Fury Road)
29. Michael Fassbender (The Light Between Oceans)
30. Antonio Banderas (The 33)
31. Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)

Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучшая актриса". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
3. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
4. Emily Blunt (Sicario)
5. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Ниже опубликован полный лонг-лист актрис:

6. Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
7. Cate Blanchett (Truth)
8. Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
9. Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)
10. Marion Cotillard (Macbeth)
11. Meryl Streep (Ricki and the Flash)
12. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
13. Julianne Moore (Freeheld)
14. Bel Powley (The Diary of a Teenage Girl)
15. Juliette Bincohe (Clouds of Sils Maria)
16. Alicia Vikander (Tulip Forever)
17. Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van)
18. Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)
19. Carey Mulligan (Far From the Madding Crowd)
20. Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold)
21. Maika Monroe (It Follows)

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 23 июня:

Best Picture
1. 'The Revenant'
2.  'Carol'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Steve Jobs'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'
6. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
7. 'The Hateful Eight'
8. 'Joy'
9. 'Suffragette'
10.  'The Walk'

Best Director
1. A.G. Innaritu, 'The Revenant'.
2. Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
3. Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
4. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
5. Ron Howard, 'In the Heart of the Sea'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Demolition'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'

Best Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
2. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
5. Lilly Tomlin, 'Grandma'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kurt Russell, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Jeff Daniels, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
4. Ralph Fiennes, 'A Bigger Splash'
5. Harvey Keitel, 'Youth'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Elizabeth Olsen, 'I Saw the Light'
4. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'
5. Naomi Watts, 'Demolition

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Demolition'
2. 'Suffragette'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'The Hateful Eight'
5.  'Joy'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'Carol'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Freeheld'
4. 'Brooklyn' 
5. 'Genius'

Best Editing
1. 'The Revenant'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Cinematography
1. Emmanuel Lubezki, 'The Revenant'
2. Anthony Dod Mantle, 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. Dariusz Wolski, 'The Martian'
4. Robert Richardson, 'The Hateful Eight'
5. John Seale, 'Mad Max: Fury Road'

Best Production Design
1. 'Cinderella'
2. 'Carol'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'Pan'
5. 'Macbeth'

Best Costume Design
1. 'The Danish Girl'
2. 'Cinderella'
3. 'Macbeth'
4. 'Carol'
5. 'Brooklyn'

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1. 'Black Mess'
2. 'The Danish Girl'
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'

Best Original Score
1. 'Bridge of Spies'
2. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
3. 'Carol'
4. 'Inside Out'
5. 'Sicario'

Best Sound Mixing
1. 'Spectre'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
4. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
5. 'The Martian'

Best Sound Editing
1. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'Jurassic World'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'Spectre'

Best Visual Effects
1. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'The Martian'
4. 'Jurassic World'
5. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'

Best Animated Feature
1. 'The Good Dinosaur'
2. 'Inside Out'
3. 'The Little Prince'
4. 'The Peanuts Morte'
5. 'Minions'

На днях стало известно, что Киноакадемия все-таки решила оставить нынешний формат выборки без изменений. На "Оскаре 2016" снова будет "плавающее" число фильмов в зависимости от процента голосов. До объявления номинантов еще очень долго, но предварительный список претендентов очертить вполне можно. Итак, мой июньский прогноз:

Best Picture:
'Bridge of Spies'
'Carol'
'The Danish Girl'
'Demolition'
'The Hateful Eight'
'In the Heart of the Sea'
'Joy'
'The Revenant'
'Steve Jobs'
'Suffragette'

Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
David O. Russell, 'Joy'
Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
Danny Boyle, 'Steve Jobs'

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Southpaw'
Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
Michael Caine, 'Youth'

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett. 'Carol'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
Meryl Streep, 'Ricki and the Flash'
Julianne Moore, 'Freeheld'

Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio Del Toro, 'Sicario'
Robert De Niro, 'Joy'
Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
Samuel L. Jackson, 'The Hateful Eight'

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful Eight'
Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
Naomi Watts, 'Demolition'
Helena Bonham Carter, 'Suffragette'
Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'

Мой финальный прогноз по будущим лауреатам Канн-2015 перед оглашением:

"Золотая пальмовая ветвь" (Palme d'Or): "Горы могут сойти с места" (реж. Цзя Чжанкэ)
"Гран-при" (Grand-prix): "Кэрол" (реж. Тодд Хейнс)
"Лучший режиссер" (Prix de la mise en scène): Дени Вильнев ("Наемница")
"Лучший сценарий" (Prix du scénario): "Лобстер" (реж. Йоргос Лантимос)
"Приз жюри" (Prix du jury): "Сын Саула" (реж. Ласло Немеш)
"Лучший актер" (Prix d'interprétation masculine): Майкл Кейн ("Молодость")
"Лучшая актриса" (Prix d'interprétation feminine): Маргерита Буй ("Моя мать")

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 28 мая:

Best Picture

Best Director
1. A.G. Innaritu, 'The Revenant'.
2. Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
3. Steven Spielberg, 'A Bridge of Spies'
4. Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
5. John Crowley, 'Brooklyn'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Demolition'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'

Best Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
2. Marion Cotillard, 'Macbeth'
3. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
4. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Lilly Tomlin, 'Grandma'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kurt Russell, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Jeff Daniels, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
4. Ralph Fiennes, 'A Bigger Splash'
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, 'Black Mass'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Elizabeth Olsen, 'I Saw the Light'
4. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'
5. Melanie Laurent, 'By the Sea'