Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучший актер". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
3. Michael Caine (Youth)
4. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
5. Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light)

Ниже полный лонг-лист актеров:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal (Demolition)
7. Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
8. Johnny Depp (Black Mass)
9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
10. Jason Segel (The End of the Tour)
11. Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
12. Bradley Cooper (Adam Jones)
13. Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies)
14. Will Smith (Concussion)
15. Jake Gyllenhaal (Southpaw)
16. George Clooney (Money Monster)
17. Richard Gere (Time Out of Mind)
18. Michael Fassbender (Macbeth)
19. Colin Firth (Genius)
20. Robert Redford (Truth)
21. Michael B. Jordan (Creed)
22. Ben Foster (The Program)
23. Matt Damon (The Martian)
24. Tom Hardy (Legend)
25. Warren Beatty (Untitled Howard Hughes Project)
26. Joseph Gordon-Levitt (The Walk)
27. Michael Shannon (Midnight Special)
28. Tom Hardy (Mad Max: Fury Road)
29. Michael Fassbender (The Light Between Oceans)
30. Antonio Banderas (The 33)
31. Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)

Брэд Бревет составил ранний (летний) прогноз по номинантам "Оскара" в категории "Лучшая актриса". Итак, вот потенциальная пятерка по его версии:

1. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
3. Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
4. Emily Blunt (Sicario)
5. Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

Ниже опубликован полный лонг-лист актрис:

6. Lily Tomlin (Grandma)
7. Cate Blanchett (Truth)
8. Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)
9. Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)
10. Marion Cotillard (Macbeth)
11. Meryl Streep (Ricki and the Flash)
12. Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
13. Julianne Moore (Freeheld)
14. Bel Powley (The Diary of a Teenage Girl)
15. Juliette Bincohe (Clouds of Sils Maria)
16. Alicia Vikander (Tulip Forever)
17. Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van)
18. Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)
19. Carey Mulligan (Far From the Madding Crowd)
20. Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold)
21. Maika Monroe (It Follows)

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 23 июня:

Best Picture
1. 'The Revenant'
2.  'Carol'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Steve Jobs'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'
6. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
7. 'The Hateful Eight'
8. 'Joy'
9. 'Suffragette'
10.  'The Walk'

Best Director
1. A.G. Innaritu, 'The Revenant'.
2. Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
3. Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
4. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
5. Ron Howard, 'In the Heart of the Sea'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Demolition'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'

Best Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
2. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
5. Lilly Tomlin, 'Grandma'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kurt Russell, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Jeff Daniels, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
4. Ralph Fiennes, 'A Bigger Splash'
5. Harvey Keitel, 'Youth'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Elizabeth Olsen, 'I Saw the Light'
4. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'
5. Naomi Watts, 'Demolition

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Demolition'
2. 'Suffragette'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'The Hateful Eight'
5.  'Joy'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'Carol'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Freeheld'
4. 'Brooklyn' 
5. 'Genius'

Best Editing
1. 'The Revenant'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Cinematography
1. Emmanuel Lubezki, 'The Revenant'
2. Anthony Dod Mantle, 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. Dariusz Wolski, 'The Martian'
4. Robert Richardson, 'The Hateful Eight'
5. John Seale, 'Mad Max: Fury Road'

Best Production Design
1. 'Cinderella'
2. 'Carol'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'Pan'
5. 'Macbeth'

Best Costume Design
1. 'The Danish Girl'
2. 'Cinderella'
3. 'Macbeth'
4. 'Carol'
5. 'Brooklyn'

Best Makeup & Hairstyling
1. 'Black Mess'
2. 'The Danish Girl'
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'

Best Original Score
1. 'Bridge of Spies'
2. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
3. 'Carol'
4. 'Inside Out'
5. 'Sicario'

Best Sound Mixing
1. 'Spectre'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
4. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
5. 'The Martian'

Best Sound Editing
1. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'Jurassic World'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'Spectre'

Best Visual Effects
1. 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'The Martian'
4. 'Jurassic World'
5. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'

Best Animated Feature
1. 'The Good Dinosaur'
2. 'Inside Out'
3. 'The Little Prince'
4. 'The Peanuts Morte'
5. 'Minions'

На днях стало известно, что Киноакадемия все-таки решила оставить нынешний формат выборки без изменений. На "Оскаре 2016" снова будет "плавающее" число фильмов в зависимости от процента голосов. До объявления номинантов еще очень долго, но предварительный список претендентов очертить вполне можно. Итак, мой июньский прогноз:

Best Picture:
'Bridge of Spies'
'Carol'
'The Danish Girl'
'Demolition'
'The Hateful Eight'
'In the Heart of the Sea'
'Joy'
'The Revenant'
'Steve Jobs'
'Suffragette'

Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
David O. Russell, 'Joy'
Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
Danny Boyle, 'Steve Jobs'

Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Southpaw'
Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
Michael Caine, 'Youth'

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett. 'Carol'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
Meryl Streep, 'Ricki and the Flash'
Julianne Moore, 'Freeheld'

Best Supporting Actor:
Benicio Del Toro, 'Sicario'
Robert De Niro, 'Joy'
Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
Samuel L. Jackson, 'The Hateful Eight'

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful Eight'
Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
Naomi Watts, 'Demolition'
Helena Bonham Carter, 'Suffragette'
Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'

Мой финальный прогноз по будущим лауреатам Канн-2015 перед оглашением:

"Золотая пальмовая ветвь" (Palme d'Or): "Горы могут сойти с места" (реж. Цзя Чжанкэ)
"Гран-при" (Grand-prix): "Кэрол" (реж. Тодд Хейнс)
"Лучший режиссер" (Prix de la mise en scène): Дени Вильнев ("Наемница")
"Лучший сценарий" (Prix du scénario): "Лобстер" (реж. Йоргос Лантимос)
"Приз жюри" (Prix du jury): "Сын Саула" (реж. Ласло Немеш)
"Лучший актер" (Prix d'interprétation masculine): Майкл Кейн ("Молодость")
"Лучшая актриса" (Prix d'interprétation feminine): Маргерита Буй ("Моя мать")

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 28 мая:

Best Picture

Best Director
1. A.G. Innaritu, 'The Revenant'.
2. Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
3. Steven Spielberg, 'A Bridge of Spies'
4. Tom Hooper, 'The Danish Girl'
5. John Crowley, 'Brooklyn'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Jake Gyllenhaal, 'Demolition'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'

Best Actress
1. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
2. Marion Cotillard, 'Macbeth'
3. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
4. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Lilly Tomlin, 'Grandma'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Kurt Russell, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Jeff Daniels, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
4. Ralph Fiennes, 'A Bigger Splash'
5. Benedict Cumberbatch, 'Black Mass'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful 8'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Elizabeth Olsen, 'I Saw the Light'
4. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'
5. Melanie Laurent, 'By the Sea'

Предварительный расклад от Питер Кнегта на гонку актрис за будущим "Оскаром":

Strong Contenders (At Least On Paper):
Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"
Julianne Moore, "Freeheld"
Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"
Saorise Ronan, "Brooklyn"
Meryl Streep, "Ricky and the Flash"
Lily Tomlin, "Grandma"

Reasonable Bets (Though At This Point, Anyone Is):
Blythe Danner, "I'll See You In My Dreams"
Carey Mulligan, "Suffragette"
Naomi Watts, "Demolition"
Charlize Theron, "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Sandra Bullock, "Our Brand Is Crisis"
Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"
Tilda Swinton, "A Bigger Splash"

Longer Shots? (But We Really Know Nothing):
Alicia Vikander, "The Light Between Oceans"
Brie Larson, "Room"
Carey Mulligan, "Far From The Madding Crowd"
Rachel McAdams, "Spotlight"
Maggie Smith, "The Lady in the Van"
Charlize Theron, "The Last Face"
Angelina Jolie, "By The Sea"

Мой предварительный прогноз по будущим лауреатам Канн-2015 перед началом конкурса:

"Золотая пальмовая ветвь" (Palme d'Or): "Горы могут сойти с ума" (реж. Цзя Чжанкэ)
"Гран-при" (Grand-prix): "Кэрол" (реж. Тодд Хейнс)
"Лучший режиссер" (Prix de la mise en scène): Жак Одиар ("Эрран")
"Лучший сценарий" (Prix du scénario): "Лобстер" (реж. Йоргос Лантимос)
"Приз жюри" (Prix du jury): "Дневник Умимати" (реж. Хирокадзу Корээда)
"Лучший актер" (Prix d'interprétation masculine): Майкл Кейн ("Молодость")
"Лучшая актриса" (Prix d'interprétation feminine): Эммануэль Берко ("Мой король")