Обновлен сайт "гурусов". Вот какие прогнозы на "Оскар" можно прочесть на культовом ресурсе:

Best Picture
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'The Martian'
3. 'Room'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'
6. 'Brooklyn'
7. 'Joy'
8. 'Carol'
9. 'Steve Jobs'
10. 'Inside Out'

Мой прогноз по поводу победителей "Готэма":

Best Feature: 'Spotlight'
Best Documentary: 'The Look of Silence'
Breakthrough Director: Marielle Heller, 'The Diary of a Teenage Girl'
Best Screenplay: Phyllis Nagi, 'Carol'
Best Actor: Paul Dano, 'Love & Mercy'
Best Actress: Brie Larson, 'Room'
Breakthrough Actor: Arielle Holmes, 'Heaven Knows What'

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 5 ноября:

Best Picture
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Bridge of Spies'
4. 'Room'
5. 'Brooklyn'
6. 'Steve Jobs'
7. 'The Hateful Eight'
8. 'The Danish Girl'
9. 'Son of Saul'
10. 'The Martian'

Best Director
1. Tom McCarthy, 'Spotlight'.
2. AG Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
3. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
4. Lenny Abrahamson, 'Room'
5. Laszlo Nemes, 'Son of Saul'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
3. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
4. Will Smith, 'Concussion'
5. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, 'Room'
2. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
5. Cary Mulligan, 'Suffragette'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
2. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
3. Mark Rylance, 'Bridge of Spies'
4. Benicio Del Toro, 'Sicario'
5. Mark Ruffalo, 'Spotlight'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
2. Jennifer Jason Leight, 'The Hateful Eight'
3. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
4. Kate Winslet, 'Steve Jobsl'
5. Elizabeth Banks, 'Love and Mercy'

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'Inside Out'
3. 'Joy'
4. 'The Hateful Eight'
5. 'Son of Saul'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'Room'
2. 'Brooklyn'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'The Revenant' 
5. 'Anomalisa'

Best Animated Feature
1. 'Inside Out'
2. 'Anomalisa'
3. 'The Good Dinosaur'
4. 'Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet'
5. 'The Peanuts Movie'

Best Editing
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Cinematography
1. 'The Revenant' (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. 'Sicario' (Roger Deakins)
3. 'In the Heart of the Sea' (Anthony Dod Mantle)
4. 'Bridge of Spies' (Janusz Kaminski)
5. 'Mad Max: Fury Road' (John Seale)

Best Production Design
1. 'Carol'
2. 'Cinderella'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Macbeth'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Costume Design
1. 'Cinderella'
2. 'Carol'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Brooklyn'
5. 'Far From the Madding Crowd'

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. 'Star Wars'
2. 'The Danish Girl'
3. 'Carol''

Best Original Score
1. 'Bridge of Spies'
2. 'Star Wars'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'Inside Out'
5. 'Sicario'

Best Sound Mixing
1. 'Spectre'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Star Wars'
4. 'Sicario'
5. 'The Martian'

Best Sound Editing
1. 'Mad Max Fury Road'
2. 'Spectre'
3. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
4. 'Sicario'
5. 'The Revenant'

Best Visual Effects
1. ''Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'The Martian'
4. 'Jurassic World'
5. 'The Walk'

Best Foreign Feature
1. 'Son of Saul' (Hungary)
2. 'Labyrints of Lies' (Germany)
3. 'The Assasin' (Taiwan)
4. 'The Second Mother' (Brasil)
5. 'Goodnight Mommy' (Austria)

Обновлен сайт "гурусов". Вот какие прогнозы на "Оскар" можно прочесть на культовом ресурсе:

Best Picture
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'The Martian'
3. 'Room'
4. 'Bridge of Spies'
5. 'The Revenant'
6. 'Joy'
7. 'Brooklyn'
8. 'Steve Jobs'
9. 'Carol'
10.'Inside Out'

Best Director
1. Tom McCarthy, 'Spotlight'
2. Ridley Scott, 'The Martian'
3. Alejandro Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
4. George Miller, 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
t5. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
t5. David O. Russell, 'Joy'

Best Actor
1. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
3. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
4. Matt Damon, 'The Martian'
5. Michael Caine, 'Youth'

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, 'Room'
2. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
3. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
4. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
5. Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Mark Rylance, 'Bridge of Spies'
2. Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
3. Mark Ruffalo, 'Spotlight'
4. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
5. Idris Elba, 'Beasts of No Nation'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
2. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
3. Kate Winslet, 'Steve Jobs'
4. Jane Fonda, 'Youth'
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful Eight'

Посмотрим, насколько схожи прогнозы трех ведущих аналитиков (Файнберг, Дэвис, Тэпли). Ниже опубликованы категории и 1 место каждого специалиста (кто кого видит на данный момент с "Оскаром" перед 1 ноября).

Best Picture
Scott Feinberg: 'The Revenant' 
Clayton Davis: 'Spotlight'
Kris Tapley: 'The Revenant'

Best Director
Scott Feinberg: Ridley Scott, 'The Martian'
Clayton Davis: Thomas McCarthy, 'Spotlight'
Kris Tapley: Alejandro González Iñárritu, 'The Revenant'

Best Actor
Scott Feinberg: Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
Clayton Davis: Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
Kris Tapley: Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'

Best Actress
Scott Feinberg: Brie Larson, 'Room'
Clayton Davis: Brie Larson, 'Room'
Kris Tapley: Brie Larson, 'Room'

Best Supporting Actor
Scott Feinberg: Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
Clayton Davis: Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
Kris Tapley: Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'

Best Supporting Actress
Scott Feinberg: Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
Clayton Davis: Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
Kris Tapley: Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'

Best Original Screenplay
Scott Feinberg: 'Joy'
Clayton Davis: 'Spotlight'
Kris Tapley: 'Spotlight'

Best Adapted Screenplay
Scott Feinberg: 'The Martian'
Clayton Davis: 'Steve Jobs'
Kris Tapley: 'Steve Jobs'

Прогнозы Скотта Файнберга на "Оскар" от 29 октября:

Best Picture
1. 'The Revenant'
2. 'Joy'
3. 'The Martian'
4. 'Spotlight'
5. 'The Big Short'
6. 'Bridge of Spies'
7. 'Brooklyn'
8. 'Room'
9. 'Straight Outta Compton'
10. 'Inside Out'

Best Director
1. Ridley Scott, 'The Martian'.
2. AG Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
3. David O. Russell, 'Joy'
4. Thomas McCarthy, 'Spotlight'
5. F. Gary Gray, 'Straight Outta Compton'

Best Actor
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
2. Matt Damon, 'The Martian'
3. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'
4. Will Smith, 'Concussion'
5. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, 'Room'
2. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Cate Blanchett, 'Carol'
5. Blythe Danner, 'I'll See You In My Dreams'

Best Supporting Actor
3. Tom Hardy, 'The Revenant'
1. Paul Dano, 'Love & Mercy'
4. Mark Ruffalo, 'Spotlight'
2. Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
5. Mark Rylance, 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
2. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
3. Kate Winslet, 'Steve Jobs'
4. Jane Fonda, 'Youth'
5. Elizabeth Banks, 'Love & Mercy'

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Joy'
2. 'Spotlight'
3. 'The Hateful Eight'
4. 'Inside Out'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'The Martian'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'Room' 
5. 'Brooklyn'

Best Animated Feature
1. 'Inside Out'
2. 'Anomalisa'
3. 'The Good Dinosaur'
4. 'The Prophet'
5. 'Shaun the Sheep Movie'

Best Foreign Language Film 
1. 'Son of Saul' (Hungary)
2. 'Goodnight Mommy' (Austria)
3. 'Labyrinths of Lies' (Germany)
4. 'Mustang' (France)
5. 'The Second Mother' (Brazil)

Best Original Score
1. 'The 33'
2. 'Star Wars'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'The Martian'

Best Original Song
1. 'See You Again' (Furious 7)
2. 'One Kind of Love' (Love & Mercy)
3. 'Til It Happens To You' (The Hunting Ground)
4. 'Writing's on the Wall' (Spectre)
5. 'Love Me Like You Do' (Fivty Shades of Grey)

Best Visual Effects
1. 'Star Wars'
2. 'Jurassic World'
3. 'The Walk'
4. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
5. 'The Martian'

Четыре месяца назад (28 июня) я делал первый прогноз в этом сезоне по поводу будущего "Оскара". Самое время опубликовать свой октябрьский вариант будущих претендентов на главную премию Киноакадемии. В "Лучшем фильме" мной указан полный список из 10 картин, хотя номинацию наверняка получат только 8 или 9 из них. 

Best Picture:
'Bridge of Spies'
'Brooklyn'
'Carol'
'The Hateful Eight'
'Inside Out'
'Joy'
'The Revenant'
'Room'
'Spotlight'
'Steve Jobs'

Best Director:
Todd Haynes, 'Carol'
Alejandro González Iñárritu, 'The Revenant'
Thomas McCarthy, 'Spotlight'
David O. Russell, 'Joy'
Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Actor:
Michael Caine, 'Youth'
Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'
Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett. 'Carol'
Brie Larson, 'Room'
Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
Charlotte Rampling, '45 Years'
Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'

Best Supporting Actor:
Robert DeNiro, 'Joy'
Samuel L. Jackson, 'The Hateful Eight'
Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
Mark Ruffalo, 'Spotlight'
Mark Rylance, 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful Eight'
Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
Isabella Rossellini, 'Joy'
Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
Kate Winslet, 'Steve Jobs'

Best Original Screenplay:
'Bridge of Spies'
'The Hateful Eight'
'Inside Out'
'Joy'
'Spotlight'

Best Adapted Screenplay:
'Brooklyn'
'Carol'
'The Revenant'
'Room'
'Steve Jobs'

Best Cinematography:
Roger Deakins, 'Sicario'
Janusz Kaminski, 'Bridge of Spies'
Emmanuel Lubezki, 'The Revenant'
Robert Richardson, 'The Hateful Eight'
John Seale, 'Mad Max Fury Road'

Мой прогноз на номинантов Европейской Киноакадемии, которых должны объявить 7 ноября. В "Лучшем фильме" мной указан расширенный список из 10 возможных картин, в других категориях - по 6 претендентов. Напомню, что ранее был составлен рекомендованный список из 52 лент для EFA.

Лучший европейский фильм
''45 лет''
''Белые ночи почтальона Алексея Тряпицына''
''Виктория''
''Голубь сидел на ветке, размышляя о бытии''
''Дипан''
''Лобстер''
''Молодость''
''Моя мама''
''Мустанг''
''Сын Саула''

Лучший европейский режиссер
Жак Одиар - ''Дипан''
Ласло Немеш - ''Сын Саула''
Рой Андерссон - ''Голубь сидел на ветке, размышляя о бытии''
Паоло Соррентино - ''Молодость''
Эндрю Хэй - ''45 лет''
Андрей Кончаловский - ''Белые ночи почтальона Алексея Тряпицына''

Лучший европейский сценарист
''Мустанг''
''Молодость''
''Лобстер''
''45 лет''
''Голубь сидел на ветке, размышляя о бытии''
''Моя мама''

Лучший европейский актер
Майкл Кейн - ''Молодость''
Колин Фаррелл - ''Лобстер''
Том Кортни - ''45 лет''
Геза Рёриг - ''Сын Саула''
Венсан Линдон - ''Закон рынка''
Фредерик Лау - ''Виктория''

Лучшая европейская актриса
Мария Поезжаева - ''Класс коррекции''
Маргарита Буй - ''Моя мама''
Шарлотта Рэмплинг - ''45 лет''
Алисия Викандер - ''Из машины''
Лайа Коста - ''Виктория''
Изабель Юппер - ''Громче, чем бомбы''

Кристофер Тэпли опубликовал октябрьские прогнозы на "Оскар" (от 14 октября).

Best Picture
1. “The Revenant” (20th Century Fox)
2. “Spotlight” (Open Road Films)
3. “Steve Jobs” (Universal Pictures)
4. ''Bridge of Spies'' (Walt Disney Pictures)
5. “Room'' (A24)
6. “The Danish Girl'' (Focus Features)
7. “Brooklyn” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
8. “The Hateful Eight'' (The Weinstein Company)
9. “Black Mass” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
10. “Inside Out” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Best Director
1. Alejandro González Iñárritu (“The Revenant”)
2. Thomas McCarthy (“Spotlight”)
3. Danny Boyle (“Steve Jobs”)
4. Steven Spielberg (“Bridge of Spies”)
5. Lenny Abrahamson (“Room”)

Best Actor
1. Michael Fassbender (“Steve Jobs”)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”)
3. Johnny Depp (“Black Mass”)
4. Eddie Redmayne (“The Danish Girl”)
5. Will Smith (“Concussion”)

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson (“Room”)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (“Joy”)
3. Saoirse Ronan (“Brooklyn”)
4. Cate Blanchett (“Truth”)
5. Charlotte Rampling (“45 Years”)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Keaton (“Spotlight”)
2. Tom Hardy (“The Revenant”)
3. Benicio Del Toro (“Sicario”)
4. Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”)
5. Joel Edgerton (“Black Mass”)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Alicia Vikander (“The Danish Girl”)
2. Jennifer Jason Leight (“The Hateful Eight”)
3. Kate Winslet (“Steve Jobs”)
4. Jane Fonda (“Youth”)
5. Rooney Mara (“Carol”)

Best Original Screenplay
1. “Spotlight” (Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer)
2. “Inside Out” (Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve)
3. “The Hateful Eight” (Quentin Tarantino)
4. “Bridge of Spies” (Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen)
5. “Joy” (Annie Mumolo, David O. Russell)

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. “Steve Jobs” (Aaron Sorkin)
2. “The Revenant” (Alejandro González Iñárritu, Mark L. Smith)
3. “Brooklyn” (Nick Hornby)
4. “Room” (Emma Donoghue)
5. “The Big Short” (Adam McKay)

Best Editing
1. “The Revenant” (Stephen Mirrione)
2. “Steve Jobs” (Elliot Graham)
3. “Spotlight” (Tom McArdle)
4. “Bridge of Spies” (Michael Kahn)
5. “Mad Max: Fury Road” (Margaret Sixel)

Best Cinematography
1. “The Revenant” (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. “The Hateful Eight” (Robert RIchardson)
3. “Sicario” (Roger Deakins)
4. “Mad Max Fury Road” (John Seale)
5. “The Danish Girl” (Danny Cohen)

Best Production Design
1. “The Danish Girl” (Eve Stewart)
2. “The Revenant” (Jack Fisk; Hamish Purdy)
3. “Carol” (Judy Becker; Heather Loeffler)
4. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (Rick Carter, Darren Gilford; Lee Sandales)
5. “Brooklyn” (François Séguin, Suzanne Cloutier)

Best Costume Design
1. “The Danish Girl” (Paco Delgado)
2. “Cinderella” (Sandy Powell)
3. “Carol” (Sandy Powell)
4. “Brooklyn” (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
5. “The Revenant” (Jacqueline West)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. “The Danish Girl”
2. “Black Mass”
3. “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Best Original Score
1. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (John Williams)
2. “The Danish Girl” (Alexandre Desplat)
3. “The Hateful Eight” (Ennio Morricone)
4. “Bridge of Spies” (Thomas Newman)
5. “The Revenant” (Sakamoto)

Best Animated Feature
1. “Inside Out” (Pixar Animation/Walt Disney Pictures)
2. “Shaun the Sheep Movie” (Lionsgate)
3. “Anomalisa” (Paramount Pictures)
4. “The Peanuts Movier” (20th Century Fox)
5. “Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet'' (GKIDS)

Best Sound Mixing
1. “The Revenant”
2. “Star Wars”
3. “Spectre”
4. “Mad Max Fury Road”
5. “The Martian”

Best Sound Editing
1. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
2. “The Revenant”
3. “Spectre”
4. “The Martian”
5. “Mad Max: Fury Road”

Best Visual Effects
1. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
2. “The Walk”
3. “The Marian”
4. “Jurassic World”
5. “Mad Max Fury Road”

Прогнозы Клэйтона Дэвиса на "Оскар" от 12 октября:

Best Picture
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'Steve Jobs'
3. 'The Revenant'
4. 'Bridge of Spies'
5. 'The Danish Girl'
6. 'The Hateful Eight'
7. 'Brooklyn'
8. 'Room'
9. 'Son of Saul'
10. 'Inside Out'

Best Director
1. Tom McCarthy, 'Spotlight'.
2. Danny Boyle, 'Steve Jobs'
3. AG Innaritu, 'The Revenant'
4. Steven Spielberg, 'Bridge of Spies'
5. Laszlo Nemes, 'Son of Saul'

Best Actor
1. Johnny Depp, 'Black Mass'
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, 'The Revenant'
3. Michael Fassbender, 'Steve Jobs'
4. Eddie Redmayne, 'The Danish Girl'
5. Will Smith, 'Concussion'

Best Actress
1. Brie Larson, 'Room'
2. Carey Mulligan, 'Suffragette'
3. Jennifer Lawrence, 'Joy'
4. Saoirse Ronan, 'Brooklyn'
5. Cate Blanchett, 'Truth'

Best Supporting Actor
1. Michael Keaton, 'Spotlight'
2. Mark Rylance, 'Bridge of Spies'
3. Mark Ruffalo, 'Spotlight'
4. Benicio Del Toro, 'Sicario'
5. Idris Elba, 'Beasts of No Nation'

Best Supporting Actress
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh, 'The Hateful Eight'
2. Alicia Vikander, 'The Danish Girl'
3. Rooney Mara, 'Carol'
4. Kate Winslet, 'Steve Jobsl'
5. Rachel McAdams, 'Spotlight'

Best Original Screenplay
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'The Hateful Eight'
3. 'Joy'
4. 'Son of Saul'
5. 'Inside Out'

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. 'Steve Jobs'
2. 'The Revenant'
3. 'Room'
4. 'Brooklyn' 
5. 'Carol'

Best Animated Feature
1. 'Inside Out'
2. 'The Good Dinosaur'
3. 'Anomalisa'
4. 'Kahlil Gibran's The Prophet'
5. 'The Peanuts Movie'

Best Editing
1. 'Spotlight'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'The Revenant'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Cinematography
1. 'The Revenant' (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2. 'Sicario' (Roger Deakins)
3. 'In the Heart of the Sea' (Anthony Dod Mantle)
4. 'Bridge of Spies' (Janusz Kaminski)
5. 'Mad Max: Fury Road' (John Seale)

Best Production Design
1. 'Carol'
2. 'Cinderella'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Macbeth'
5. 'Bridge of Spies'

Best Costume Design
1. 'Cinderella'
2. 'Carol'
3. 'The Danish Girl'
4. 'Brooklyn'
5. 'Far From the Madding Crowd'

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. 'Star Wars'
2. 'The Danish Girl'
3. 'Carol''

Best Original Score
1. 'Bridge of Spies'
2. 'Star Wars'
3. 'Steve Jobs'
4. 'Inside Out'
5. 'Sicario'

Best Sound Mixing
1. 'Spectre'
2. 'Mad Max: Fury Road'
3. 'Star Wars'
4. 'Sicario'
5. 'The Martian'

Best Sound Editing
1. 'Mad Max Fury Road'
2. 'Spectre'
3. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
4. 'Sicario'
5. 'The Revenant'

Best Visual Effects
1. ''Star Wars: The Force Awakens'
2. 'In the Heart of the Sea'
3. 'The Martian'
4. 'Jurassic World'
5. 'The Walk'

Best Foreign Feature
1. 'Son of Saul' (Hungary)
2. 'Labyrints of Lies' (Germany)
3. 'The Assasin' (Taiwan)
4. 'The Second Mother' (Brasil)
5. 'Goodnight Mommy' (Austria)