predictions

HitFix (2 February 2015)

Прогноз Кристофера Тэпли (HitFix) на победителей "Оскара" от 2 февраля (до вручения DGA, BAFTA).

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Best Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: 'Glory'
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Film: Wild Tales
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

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Gurus O'Gold (4 February 2015)

Best Picture: Boyhood 
Best Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)  
Best Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game 
Best Editing: Boyhood 
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Best Sound Editing: Birdman 
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: 'Glory'
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2 
Best Foreign Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

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Scott Feinberg Oscar Predictions (28/01/2015)

Прогноз Скотта Файнберга на победителей "Оскара" от 28 января (после вручения PGA, SAG). Зачеркнуты старые прогнозы недельной новости, "равенство" (=) означает тот же прогноз.

Best Picture: Boyhood Birdman 
Best Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood) =
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) =
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice) =
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) =
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)  =
Best Screenplay: Birdman =
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash =
Best Editing: Boyhood =
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman) =
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar =
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel =
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Foxcatcher The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design: Into the Woods =
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman American Sniper
Best Sound Editing: Birdman American Sniper
Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: 'Lost Stars' 'I'm Not Gonna Miss You'
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2 =
Best Foreign Film: Wild Tales =
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour =

 

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Scott Feinberg Oscar Predictions (20/01/2015)

Прогноз Скотта Файнберга на победителей "Оскара" от 20 января (до вручения PGA, SAG, WGA).

Best Picture: Boyhood
Best Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Best Screenplay: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Foxcatcher
Best Costume Design: Into the Woods
Best Sound Mixing: Birdman
Best Sound Editing: Birdman
Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song: 'Lost Stars'
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Film: Wild Tales
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

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Boyhood vs Birdman

Впервые в сезоне появилась реальная интрига. Долгое время "Отрочество" везде побеждало и казалось, что этот проект неудержим совершенно. Мол, это вроде "Артиста" этого сезона, который забирал призы пачками и везде (Глобус, ПГА, Спирит, Бафта). Хотя еще в ноябре я был уверен, что в этом году повторится история соперничества "Социальной сети" и "Короля". Тогда, напомню, Финчер выигрывал почти во всех раздачах критиков, а потом прихватил с собой и "Глобус". Казалось, что "Оскар" ему обеспечен. Но тут вышел на авансцену "Король говорит!". Проект Вайнштейнов сначала забрал себе все гильдии, а потом и "Оскар".

В ноябре в роли нового "Короля" мне виделась "Имитация". Они похожи по стилю и выделке ("Имитация" даже сильнее как фильм) и подходят под формат Киноакадемии. После номинации Мортена Тильдума на "Оскар" эта ситуация становилась еще более реальной. По-хорошему за режиссуру там не за что номинировать как в случае с Хупером. Именно поэтому "Имитация" и казалась такой опасной для соперников. Аналитик с ресурса HitFix даже поставил "Игру в имитацию" на 1 место среди фаворитов. И тут совершенно неожиданно "Бердмэн" берет награду гильдии продюсеров. Это очень весомый приз. PGA и "Оскар" очень часто совпадают, а после 2009 года (там стала применяться та же система подсчета голосов) и вовсе всегда. Потому на данный момент "Бердмэн" взлетает и очень высоко. Будет ли падение птички? Или же супергерой нагнет всех остальных? Я - Бердмэн. Я - кинозвезда. Посмотрим.

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SAG 2015: My Predictions

Мой прогноз на лауреатов гильдии актеров:

Лучший ансамбль: "Отель Гранд Будапешт"
Лучший актер: Майкл Китон ("Бердмэн")
Лучшая актриса: Джулианна Мур ("Все еще Элис")
Лучший актер второго плана: Дж. К.  Симмонс ("Одержимость")
Лучшая актриса второго плана: Патрисия Аркетт ("Отрочество")

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Oscar 2015 Nominees: My Predictions in November

19 ноября я составлял свой предварительный прогноз на основные категории "Оскара". Как оказалось, угадал я не так уж и мало счастливчиков среди номинантов. А в главной категории смог спрогнозировать верно 6/8 фильмов (Скотт Файнберг правда сумел аж 7). Вот мой ноябрьский расклад (жирным выделены те, кого я тогда видел в будущих победителях):

Лучший фильм:
* Birdman
* Boyhood
* The Imitation Game
* Interstellar
* Into the Woods
* Selma
* The Theory of Everything
* Unbroken
* Whiplash

Лучший режиссер:
* Damien Chazell | Whiplash
* Ava DuVernay | Selma
* Alejandro González Iñárritu | Birdman
* Richard Linklater | Boyhood
* Morten Tyldum | The Imitation Game

Лучший актер:
* Benedict Camberbatch | The Imitation Game 
* Jack O'Connell | Unbroken
* Michael Keaton | Birdman
* David Oyelowo | Selma
* Eddie Redmayne | The Theory of Everything

Лучшая актриса:
* Felicity Jones | The Theory of Everything
* Julianne Moore | Still Alice
* Rosamund Pike | Gone Girl
* Reese Witherspoon | Wild
* Amy Adams | Big Eyes

Лучший актер второго плана:
* Ethan Hawke | Boyhood
* Miyavi | Unbroken
* Edward Norton | Birdman
* J.K. Simmons | Whiplash
* Mark Ruffalo | Foxcatcher

Лучшая актриса второго плана:
* Patricia Arquette | Boyhood
* Jessica Chastain | A Most Violent Year
* Keira Knightley | The Imitation Game
* Emma Stone | Birdman
* Meryl Streep | Into the Woods

Лучшая операторская работа:
* Interstellar | Hoyte van Hoytema
* Birdman | Emmanuel Lubezki
* Selma | Bradford Young
* Mr. Turner | Dick Pope
* Unbroken | Roger Deakins

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Oscar 2015: My Final Predictions

Мой персональный прогноз на номинантов "Оскар-2015". В качестве обзора выбраны все категории, кроме грима, документального фильма, короткометражек и сугубо технических ветвей (звук и монтаж звука). Потенциальные номинанты указаны в алфавитном порядке:

Best Film
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Boyhood''
4. ''Gone Girl''
5. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
6. ''The Imitation Game''
7. ''Selma''
8. ''The Theory of Everything''
9. ''Whiplash''

Best Director
1. Wes Anderson (''The Grand Budapest Hotel'')

2. Damien Chazelle (''Whiplash'')
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu (''Birdman'')
4. Richard Linklater (''Boyhood'')
5. Morten Tyldum (''The Imitation Game'')

Best Actor
1. Benedict Cumberbatch (''The Imitation Game'')

2. Ralph Fiennes (''The Grand Budapest Hotel'')
3. Jake Gyllenhaal (''Nightcrawler'')
4. Michael Keaton (''Birdman'')
5. Eddie Redmayne (''The Theory of Everything'') 

Best Actress
1. Amy Adams (''Big Eyes'')
2. Felicity Jones (''The Theory of Everything'')

3. Julianne Moore (''Still Alice'')
4. Rosamund Pike (''Gone Girl'')
5. Reese Witherspoon (''Wild'')

Best Supporting Actor
1. Robert Duvall (''The Judge'')

2. Ethan Hawke (''Boyhood'')
3. Edward Norton ('Birdman')
4. Mark Ruffalo ('Foxcatcher')
5. J.K. Simmons (''Whiplash'')

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette (""Boyhood'')
2. Keira Kneightley (''The Imitation Game'')

3. Rene Russo (''Nightcrawler'')
4. Emma Stone (''Birdman'')
5. Meryl Streep (''Into the Woods'')

Best Original Screenplay
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''Boyhood''
3. ''Foxcatcher''
4. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
5. ''Nightcrawler''

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Gone Girl''
3. ''The Imitation Game''
4. ''The Theory of Everything''
5. ''Whiplash''

Best Film Editing
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Boyhood''
4. ''The Imitation Game''
5. ''Whiplash''

Best Cinematography
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
3. ''Interstellar'
4. ''Mr. Turner''
5. ''Unbroken''

Best Production Design
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''The Imitation Game''
3. ''Interstellar''
4. ''Into the Woods''

5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Costume Design
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''The Imitation Game''
3. ''Into the Woods''
4. ''Maleficent''
5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Original Score
1. ''Gone Girl''
2. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
3. ''The Theory of Everything''
4. ''The Imitation Game''
5. ''Interstellar''

Best Visual Effects
1. ''Dawn of the Planet of the Apes''
2. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''
3. ''The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies''
4. ''Interstellar''

5. ''Transformers: Age of Extinction"

Best Animated Feature Film
1. ''Big Hero 6''
2. ''The Boxtrolls''
3. ''How to Train Your Dragon 2''
4. ''The Lego Movie''
5. ''The Tale of Princess Kaguya''

Best Foreign Language Film
1. ''Ida'' (Poland)
2. ''Leviathan'' (Russia)
3. ''Tangerines'' (Estonia)
4. ''Timbuktu'' (Mauritania)
5. ''Wild Tales'' (Argentina)

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Oscar 2015: Sasha Stone Predictions Nominees

Финальный прогноз на номинантов "Оскара" от Саши Стоун в приоритетном порядке:

Best Film
1. ''Boyhood'' 
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
4. ''The Imitation Game''
5. ''The Theory of Everything''
6. ''Selma''
7. ''Gone Girl''
8. ''Whiplash''
9. ''American Sniper''

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater ("Boyhood'')

2. Aljenadro Gonzalez Innaritu (''Birdman'')
3. Wes Anderson ("The Grand Budapest Hotel'')
4. Damien Chazelle (''Whiplash')
5. David Fincher (''Gone Girl'')

Best Actor
1. Michael Keaton (''Birdman'')

2. Eddie Redmayne (''The Theory of Everything'')
3. Jake Gyllenhaal (''Nightcrawler'')
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (''The Imitation Game'')
5. David Oyelowo (''Selma'') 

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore (''Still Alice'')
2. Rosamund Pike (''Gone Girl'')

3. Reese Witherspoon (''Wild'')
4. Felicity Jones (''The Theory of Everything'')
5. Jennifer Aniston (''Cake'')

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons (''Whiplash'')

2. Edward Norton (''Birdman'')
3. Mark Ruffalo ('Foxcatcher'')
4. Robert Duvall (''The Judge'')
5. Ethan Hawke (''Boyhood'')

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette (""Boyhood'')

2. Emma Stone (''Birdman'')
3. Keira Kneightley (''The Imitation Game'')

4. Meryl Streep (''Into the Woods'')
5. Jessica Chastain (''A Most Violent Year'')

Best Original Screenplay
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
3. ''Boyhood''
4. ''Nightcrawler''
5. ''Selma''

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. ''Gone Girl''
2. ''The Imitation Game''
3. ''Wild''
4. ''American Sniper''
5. ''Whiplash''

Best Film Editing
1. ''Boyhood''
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Gone Girl''

4. ''Whiplash''
5. ''American Sniper''

Best Cinematography
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''Mr. Turner''
3. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
4. ''Unbroken''
5. ''The Imitation Game''

Best Production Design
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''Mr. Turner''
3. ''The Imitation Game''
4. ''Into the Woods''

5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Costume Design
1. ''Into the Woods''
2. ''The Imitation Game''
3. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
4. ''Maleficent''
5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Original Score
1. ''Gone Girl''
2. ''Interstellar''
3. ''The Theory of Everything''
4. ''The Imitation Game''
5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Visual Effects
1. ''Interstellar''
2. ''Dawn of the Planet of the Apes''
3. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''

4. ''The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies''
5. ''X-Men: Days of Future Past''

Best Animated Feature Film
1. ''The Lego Movie''
2. ''The Tale of Princess Kaguya''
3. ''How to Train Your Dragon 2''
4. ''Big Hero 6''
5. ''The Boxtrolls''

Best Foreign Language Film
1. ''Force Majeure'' (Sweden)
2. ''Ida'' (Poland)
3. ''Leviathan'' (Russia)
4. ''Timbuktu'' (Mauritania)
5. ''Wild Tales'' (Argentina)

Best Sound Mixing
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Into the Woods''
3. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''
4. ''Interstellar''

5. ''Unbroken''

Best Sound Editing
1. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''
2. ''American Sniper''
3. ''Interstellar''
4. ''Unbroken''
5. ''Birdman''

Best Make Up and Hairstyling
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''

3. ''Foxcatcher''

Best Documentary Feature
1. ''Citizenfour'
2. ''Life Itself''
3. ''Last Days in Vietnam''

4. ''Virunga''
5. ''Salt on the Earth''

Best Original Song
1. ''Big Eyes'' (''Big Eyes'')
2. ''Glory'' (''Selma")
3. ''Mercy Is'' (''Noah'')
4. ''Everything Is Awesome'' (''The Lego Movie'')

5. ''Lost Stars'' (''Begin Again'')

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Oscar 2015: Kristopher Tapley Predictions Nominees

Финальный прогноз на номинантов "Оскара" от Кристофера Тэпли  (HitFix) в алфавитном порядке:

Best Film
1. ''American Sniper'' 
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Boyhood''
4. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
5. ''The Imitation Game''
6. ''Nightcrawler''
7. ''Selma''
8. ''The Theory of Everything''
9. ''Whiplash''

Best Director
1. Wes Anderson ("The Grand Budapest Hotel'')

2. Clint Eastwood (''American Sniper'')
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu ("Birdman'')
4. Richard Linklater (''Boyhood')
5. Morten Tyldum ('The Imitation Game'')

Best Actor
1. Benedict Cumberbatch (''The Imitation Game'')

2. Jake Gyllenhaal (''Nightcrawler'')
3. Michael Keaton (''Birdman'')
4. Bradley Cooper (''American Sniper'')
5. Eddie Redmayne (''The Theory of Everything'') 

Best Actress
1. Jennifer Aniston (''Cake'')
2. Felicity Jones (''The Theory of Everything'')

3. Julianne Moore (''Still Alice'')
4. Rosamund Pike (''Gone Girl'')
5. Reese Witherspoon (''Wild'')

Best Supporting Actor
1. Robert Duvall (''The Judge'')

2. Ethan Hawke (''Boyhood'')
3. Edward Norton ('Birdman')
4. Mark Ruffalo ('Foxcatcher')
5. J.K. Simmons (''Whiplash'')

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette (""Boyhood'')

2. Rene Russo (''Nightcrawler'')
3. Keira Kneightley (''The Imitation Game'')

4. Emma Stone (''Birdman'')
5. Meryl Streep (''Into the Woods'')

Best Original Screenplay
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''Boyhood''
3. ''Mr. Turner''
4. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
5. ''Nightcrawler''

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Gone Girl''
3. ''The Imitation Game''
4. ''The Theory of Everything''
5. ''Whiplash''

Best Film Editing
1. ''BIrdman''
2. ''Boyhood''
3. ''The Imitation Game''

4. ''Nightcrawler''
5. ''Whiplash''

Best Cinematography
1. ''Birdman''
2. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
3. ''Ida''
4. ''Mr. Turner''
5. ''Unbroken''

Best Production Design
1. ''Big Eyes''
2. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
3. ''The Imitation Game''
4. ''Into the Woods''

5. ''Mr. Turner''

Best Costume Design
1. ''The Imitation Game''
2. ''Into the Woods''
3. ''Mr. Turner''
4. ''Maleficent''
5. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''

Best Original Score
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''The Judge'
3. ''The Theory of Everything''
4. ''The Imitation Game''
5. ''Interstellar''

Best Visual Effects
1. ''Dawn of the Planet of the Apes''
2. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''

3. ''The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies''
4. ''Interstellar''

5. ''X-Men: Days of Future Past''

Best Animated Feature Film
1. ''Big Hero 6''
2. ''The Boxtrolls''
3. ''How to Train Your Dragon 2''
4. ''The Lego Movie''
5. ''Song of the Sea''

Best Foreign Language Film
1. ''Tangerines'' (Estonia))
2. ''Ida'' (Poland)
3. ''Leviathan'' (Russia)
4. ''Timbuktu'' (Mauritania)
5. ''Wild Tales'' (Argentina)

Best Sound Mixing
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''
4. ''The Imitation Game''

5. ''Unbroken''

Best Sound Editing
1. ''American Sniper''
2. ''Birdman''
3. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''
4. ''Interstellar''
5. ''Unbroken''

Best Make Up and Hairstyling
1. ''The Grand Budapest Hotel''
2. ''Guardians of the Galaxy''

3. ''The Theory of Everything''

Best Documentary Feature
1. ''Citizenfour'
2. ''Finding Vivian Maier''
3. ''Last Days in Vietnam''

4. ''The Overnighters''
5. ''Virunga''

Best Original Song
1. ''Ryan's Song'' (''Boyhood'')
2. ''Everything Is Awesome'' (''The Lego Movie")
3. ''Glory'' (''Selma'')
4. ''Lost Stars'' (''Begin Again'')

5. ''I'm Not Gonna Miss You'' (''Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me'')

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