В категории "Лучший анимационный фильм" достаточно просто вычислить 4/5 фронтраннеров: это "Лего Фильм", "Как приручить дракона 2", "Город героев" и "Семейка монстров". Пятая вакансия до сих пор остается неопределенной. На мой взгляд, хороший вкус кинематографистов в области анимации и заслуженная репутация студии "Гибли" должны помочь "Принцессе Кагуя" попасть в пятерку номинантов. К тому же американские критики солидарны: Исао Такахата снял новый шедевр.

Прогнозы экспертов:

Scott Feinberg (07/01/2015):
'The Lego Movie'
'How to Train Your Dragon 2'
'Big Hero 6'
'The Boxtrolls'
'The Tale of Princess Kaguya'

Clayton Davis (09/01/2015):
'The Lego Movie'
'The Boxtrolls'
'Big Hero 6'
'How to Train Your Dragon 2'
'The Tale of Princess Kaguya'

Kristopher Tapley (12/01/2015):
'How to Train Your Dragon 2'
'The Lego Movie'
'The Boxtrolls'
'Big Hero 6'
'The Tale of Princess Kaguya'

Peter Knegt (08/01/2015):
'The Lego Movie'
'Big Hero 6'
'How to Train Your Dragon 2'
'The Boxtrolls'
'Song ot the Sea'

Меньше месяца осталось до оглашения номинантов "Оскара", поэтому сегодня начну свой прогностический (я не о курсе евро) поход за "Оскаром". Время от времени я буду писать свои размышления об основных категориях Киноакадемии, а также делиться версиями различных специалистов.

P.S. 5 января появилась новость, что скрипт "Одержимости" на "Оскаре" пойдет как адаптация.

Прогнозы экспертов:

Scott Feinberg (07/01/2015):
'The Theory of Everything'
'The Imitation Game'
'Gone Girl'
'Whiplash'
'American Sniper'

Clayton Davis (09/01/2015):
'The Imitation Game'
'Gone Girl'
'The Theory of Everything'
'American Sniper'
'Whiplash'

Kristopher Tapley (12/01/2015):
'The Imitation Game'
'Gone Girl'
'Whiplash'
'American Sniper'
'The Theory of Everything'

Peter Knegt (07/01/2015):
'The Imitation Game'
'The Theory of Everything'
'Gone Girl'
'Whiplash'
'American Sniper'
 

Прогнозы Скотта Файнберга: после номинаций "Золотого глобуса", но до оглашения "Критикс Чойс" (11/12/2014).

Best Film
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Selma
4. Birdman
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Whiplash
7. Foxcatcher
8. Nightcrawler
9. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Director
1. Richard Linklater ('Boyhood')
2. Alejandro G. Inarrity ('Birdman')
3. Ava Duvernay ('Selma')
4. Morten Tyldum ('The Imitation Game')
5. Damien Chazelle ('Whiplash')

Best Actor
1. Eddie Redmayne ('The Theory of Everything')
2. Michael Keaton ('Birdman')
3. Benedict Cumberbatch ('The Imitation Game')
4. Steve Carelle ('Foxcatcher')
5. David Oyelowo ('Selma')

Best Actress
1. Julianne Moore ('Still Alice')
2. Reese Witherspoon ('Wild')
3. Rosamund Pike ('Gone Girl')
4. Felicity Jones ('The Theory of Everything')
5. Jennifer Aniston ('Cake')

Best Supporting Actor
1. J.K. Simmons ('Whiplash')
2. Ethan Hawke ('Boyhood')
3. Edward Norton ('Birdman')
4. Mark Ruffalo ('Foxcatcher')
5. Robert Duvall ('The Judge')

Best Supporting Actress
1. Patricia Arquette ('Boyhood')
2. Meryl Streep ('Into the Woods')
3. Emma Stone ('Birdman')
4. Keira Kneightley ('The Imitation Game')
5. Jessica Chastain ('A Most Violent Year')

Best Original Screenplay
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Whiplash
5. Foxcatcher

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Imitation Game
2. Gone Girl
3. The Theory of Everything
4. American Sniper
5. Wild

Best Cinematography
1. Emmanuel Lubezki ('Birdman')
2. Hoyte van Hoytema ('Interstellar')
3. Roger Deakins ('Unbroken')
4. Dick Pope ('Mr. Turner')
5. Robert Elswit ('Nightcrawler')

Мой персональный прогноз на лауреатов Европейской Киноакадемии этого года. Церемония состоится в Риге 13 декабря.

Лауреаты::
Лучший фильм: "Ида"
Лучший режиссер: Павел Павликовский ("Ида")
Лучший актер: Тимоти Сполл  ("Уильям Тернер")
Лучшая актриса: Марион Котийяр ("Два дня, одна ночь") 
Лучший сценарий: "Левиафан" 
Европейское открытие: "Племя"
Лучшая комедия: "Уик-энд в Париже"

Прогноз Скотта Файнберга на номинантов "Золотого глобуса".:

Best Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Selma
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Into the Woods
4. St. Vincent
5. Top Five

Best Director:
1. Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
3. Christopher Nolan, ''Interstellar''
4. Angelina Jolie, "Unbroken"
5. Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"

Best Screenplay:
1. Unbroken
2. Boyhood
3. The Theory of Everything
4. Gone Girl
5. The Imitation Game

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
2. Matthew MacConaughey, "Interstellar"
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
4. Robert Downey Jr., "The Judge"
5. Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
2. Mark Ruffalo, "Begin Again"
3. Bill Murray, "St. Vincent"
4. Al Pacino, "The Humbling"
5. Chris Rock, "Top Five"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
2. Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
3. Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
4. Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
5. Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Amy Adams, "Big Eyes"
2. Angelina Jolie, "Maleficent"
3. Jenny Slate, "Obvious Child"
4. Helen Mirren, "The Hundreed Foot Journey"
5. Keira Knightley, "Begin Again"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
2. Edward Norton, "Birdman"
3. Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
4. Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
5. Robert Duvall, "The Judge"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
2. Meryl Streep, "Into The Woods"
3. Emma Stone, "Birdman"
4. Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
5. Jessica Chastain, "Interstellar"

Best Original Score:
1. Unbroken
2. The Imitation Game
3. Interstellar
4. Birdman
5. Gone Girl

Best Foreign Film:
1. Ida
2. Force Majeure
3. Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem
4. Two Days, One Night
5. Wild Tales

Сегодня объявят номинантов очередного "Золотого глобуса". Ниже привожу личный прогноз:

Best Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Selma
4. Gone Girl
5. Unbroken

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Into the Woods
4. St. Vincent
5. Top Five

Best Director:
1. Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
3. Clint Eastwood, ''American Sniper''
4. Angelina Jolie, "Unbroken"
5. Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"

Best Screenplay:
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Gone Girl
5. The Imitation Game

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
2. Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
4. David Oyelowo, "Selma"
5. Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
2. Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
3. Bill Murray, "St. Vincent"
4. Joaquin Phoenix, "Inherent Vice"
5. Chris Rock, "Top Five"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
2. Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
3. Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
4. Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
5. Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Amy Adams, "Big Eyes"
2. Angelina Jolie, "Maleficent"
3. Emily Blunt, "Into the Woods"
4. Helen Mirren, "The Hundreed Foot Journey"
5. Keira Knightley, "Begin Again"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
2. Edward Norton, "Birdman"
3. Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
4. Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
5. Josh Brolin, "Inherent Vice"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
2. Meryl Streep, "Into The Woods"
3. Emma Stone, "Birdman"
4. Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
5. Jessica Chastain, "A Most Violent Year"

Best Original Score:
1. Unbroken
2. The Imitation Game
3. Interstellar
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Gone Girl

Best Foreign Film:
1. Ida
2. Leviathan
3. Mommy
4. Two Days, One Night
5. Wild Tales

Прогнозы на номинантов "Золотого глобуса" от Peter Knegt (Indiewire):

Best Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Selma
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Birdman
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Into the Woods
4. St. Vincent
5. Begin Again

Best Director:
1. Richard Linklater, "Boyhood"
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Birdman"
3. Ava DuVernay, ''Selma''
4. Angelina Jolie, "Unbroken"
5. Morten Tyldum, "The Imitation Game"

Best Screenplay:
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Gone Girl
5. The Imitation Game

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Steve Carell, "Foxcatcher"
2. Jake Gyllenhaal, "Nightcrawler"
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, "The Imitation Game"
4. David Oyelowo, "Selma"
5. Eddie Redmayne, "The Theory of Everything"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Michael Keaton, "Birdman"
2. Ralph Fiennes, "The Grand Budapest Hotel"
3. Bill Murray, "St. Vincent"
4. Joaquin Phoenix, "Inherent Vice"
5. Bill Hader, "Skeleton Twins"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama):
1. Julianne Moore, "Still Alice"
2. Jennifer Aniston, "Cake"
3. Rosamund Pike, "Gone Girl"
4. Felicity Jones, "The Theory of Everything"
5. Reese Witherspoon, "Wild"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):
1. Amy Adams, "Big Eyes"
2. Angelina Jolie, "Maleficent"
3. Emily Blunt, "Into the Woods"
4. Julianne Moore, "Maps to the Stars"
5. Keira Knightley, "Begin Again"

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. J.K. Simmons, "Whiplash"
2. Edward Norton, "Birdman"
3. Mark Ruffalo, "Foxcatcher"
4. Ethan Hawke, "Boyhood"
5. Miyavi, "Unbroken"

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:
1. Patricia Arquette, "Boyhood"
2. Meryl Streep, "Into The Woods"
3. Emma Stone, "Birdman"
4. Keira Knightley, "The Imitation Game"
5. Laura Dern, "Wild"

Best Original Score:
1. Unbroken
2. The Imitation Game
3. Interstellar
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Gone Girl

Best Foreign Film:
1. Ida
2. Leviathan
3. Mommy
4. Two Days, One Night
5. Winter Sleep

Ниже прогноз на номинантов гильдии актеров от Скотта Файнберга:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Imitation Game
4. Into the Woods
5. Gone Girl

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. David Oyelowo (Selma)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
4. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
5. Shailene Woodley (The Fault In Our Stars)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
3. Edward Norton (Birdman)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
3. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Laura Dern (Wild)

Завтра объявят номинантов на престижную премию гильдии актеров Голливуда (SAG). Эта премия считается в США во многом определяющей в гонке за "Оскаром": победители у гильдии и Киноакадемии очень часто совпадают. А отсутствие номинации на SAG делает борьбу за болвана практически невыполнимой. Особую интригу составляет традиционная категория "Лучший актерский ансамбль". Победитель "Оскара" в главной категории всегда является номинантом гильдии в ансамбле. За все время существования премии только одному фильму удалось взять ВР без номинации на SAG: это было "Храброе сердце". Поэтому число возможных фаворитов в гонке за болваном после оглашения результатов гильдии можно сразу сокращать до пятерки. Аутсайдеры главный "Оскар" не выигрывают.

Ниже привожу мой персональный прогноз на номинантов гильдии актеров:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
1. Birdman
2. Boyhood
3. The Imitation Game
4. Selma
5. Into the Woods

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Michael Keaton (Birdman)
2. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
3. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
4. David Oyelowo (Selma)
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
3. Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
4. Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
2. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
3. Edward Norton (Birdman)
4. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
5. Robert Duvall (The Judge)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
2. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
4. Emma Stone (Birdman)
5. Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)