Посмотрим, насколько схожи прогнозы трех ведущих аналитиков (Файнберг, Дэвис, Тэпли). Ниже опубликованы категории и 1 место каждого специалиста (кто кого видит на данный момент с "Оскаром" перед 4 октября).

Best Picture
Scott Feinberg: 'La La Land' 
Clayton Davis: 'La La Land'
Kris Tapley: 'Silence'

Best Director
Scott Feinberg: Damien Chazelle, 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: Damien Chazelle, 'La La Land'
Kris Tapley: Martin Scorsese, 'Silence'

Best Actor
Scott Feinberg: Denzel Washington, 'Fences'
Clayton Davis: Denzel Washington, 'Fences'
Kris Tapley: Denzel Washington, 'Fences'

Best Actress
Scott Feinberg: Emma Stone, 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: Viola Davis, 'Fences'
Kris Tapley: Emma Stone, 'La La Land'

Best Supporting Actor
Scott Feinberg: Jeff Bridges, 'Hell or High Water'
Clayton Davis: Liam Neeson, 'Silence'
Kris Tapley: Stephen McKinley Henderson, 'Fences'

Best Supporting Actress
Scott Feinberg: Naomie Harris, 'Moonlight'
Clayton Davis: Michelle Williams, 'Manchester by the Sea'
Kris Tapley: Michelle Williams, 'Manchester by the Sea'

Best Original Screenplay
Scott Feinberg: 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: 'La La Land'
Kris Tapley: 'La La Land'

Best Adapted Screenplay
Scott Feinberg: 'Fences'
Clayton Davis: 'Fences'
Kris Tapley: 'Fences'

Best Editing
Scott Feinberg: 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: 'La La Land'
Kris Tapley: 'Silence'

Best Cinematography
Scott Feinberg: 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: 'Silence'
Kris Tapley: 'Silence'

Best Production Design
Scott Feinberg: 'La La Land'
Clayton Davis: 'La La Land'
Kris Tapley: 'Live By Night'

Best Costume Design
Scott Feinberg: 'Fences'
Clayton Davis: 'Fantastic Beasts and Where to FInd Them'
Kris Tapley: 'Silence'

Best Visual Effects
Scott Feinberg: 'The Jungle Book'
Clayton Davis: 'Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk'
Kris Tapley: 'Rogue One: A Star Wars Story'

Best Original Score
Scott Feinberg: 'Hidden Figures'
Clayton Davis: 'Arrival'
Kris Tapley: 'The BFG'

Best Original Song
Scott Feinberg: 'Audition' (La La Land)
Clayton Davis: 'Audition' (La La Land)
Kris Tapley: 'Audition' (La La Land)

Best Animated Feature
Scott Feinberg: 'Zootopia'
Clayton Davis: 'Moana'
Kris Tapley: 'Zootopia'

Прогноз Клэйтона Дэвиса по поводу номинантов "Оскара" от 3 октября:

Best Picture
“La La Land” (SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT)
“Fences” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
“Silence” (PARAMOUNT PICTURES)
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (SONY PICTURES)
“Lion” (THE WEINSTEIN COMPANY)
“Moonlight” (A24)
“Loving” (FOCUS FEATURES)
“Jackie” (FOX SEARCHLIGHT PICTURES)
“Manchester by the Sea” (ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS/AMAZON STUDIOS)
“13th” (NETFLIX)

Best Director
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Ang Lee – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight“

Best Actor
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Tom Hanks – “Sully“
Joel Edgerton – “Loving“

Best Actress
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Natalie Portman – “Jackie“
Annette Bening – “20th Century Women”
Ruth Negga – “Loving“

Best Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson – “Silence”
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins“
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals“
Stephen McKinley Henderson – “Fences”
Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight“

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Nicole Kidman – “Lion“
Greta Gerwig – “20th Century Women”
Margo Martindale – “The Hollars“

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Fences” – August Wilson
“Silence” – Jay Cocks
“Lion” – Luke Davies
“Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli

Best Original Screenplay
“La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
“Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
“Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
“Loving” – Jeff Nichols
“Jackie” – Noah Oppenheim

Best Cinematography
“Silence” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – John Toll
“La La Land” – Linus Sandgren
“Arrival” – Bradford Young
“Nocturnal Animals” – Seamus McGarvey

Прогноз Клэйтона Дэвиса по поводу номинантов "Оскара" от 26 сентября:

Best Picture
“La La Land” (Summit Entertainment)
“Fences” (Paramount Pictures)
“Silence” (Paramount Pictures)
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (Sony Pictures)
“Lion” (The Weinstein Company)
“Moonlight” (A24)
“Loving” (Focus Features)
“Jackie” (Fox Seachlight Pictures)
“Hidden Figures” (20th Century Fox)
“Manchester by the Sea” (Roadside Attractions/Amazon Studios)

Best Director
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
Ang Lee – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight“

Best Actor
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Tom Hanks – “Sully“
Joel Edgerton – “Loving“

Best Actress
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Natalie Portman – “Jackie“
Ruth Negga – “Loving“
Annette Bening – “20th Century Women”

Best Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson – “Silence”
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals“
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins“
Aaron Eckhart – “Sully“
Warren Beatty – “Rules Don’t Apply”

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Nicole Kidman – “Lion“
Margo Martindale – “The Hollars“
Molly Shannon – “Other People“

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Fences” – August Wilson
“Silence” – Jay Cocks
“Lion” – Luke Davies
“Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli

Best Original Screenplay
“La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
“Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
“Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
“Loving” – Jeff Nichols
“Jackie” – Noah Oppenheim

Best Cinematography
“Silence” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – John Toll
“La La Land” – Linus Sandgren
“Arrival” – Bradford Young
“Moonlight” – James Laxton

Прогно Клэйтона Дэвиса по поводу номинантов "Оскара" от 19 сентября:

Best Picture
“La La Land” (Summit Entertainment)
“Silence” (Paramount Pictures)
“Fences” (Paramount Pictures)
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (Sony Pictures)
“Lion” (The Weinstein Company)
“Hidden Figures” (20th Century Fox)
“Loving” (Focus Features)
“Moonlight” (A24)
“Manchester by the Sea” (Roadside Attractions/Amazon Studios)
“Sully” (Warner Bros.)

Best Director
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
Ang Lee – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Barry Jenkins – “Moonlight“

Best Actor
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Tom Hanks – “Sully“
Joel Edgerton – “Loving“

Best Actress
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Natalie Portman – “Jackie“
Ruth Negga – “Loving“
Annette Bening – “20th Century Women”

Best Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson – “Silence”
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals“
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins“
Aaron Eckhart – “Sully“
Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight“

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Margo Martindale – “The Hollars“
Kristen Stewart – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures”

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Fences” – August Wilson
“Silence” – Jay Cocks
“Lion” – Luke Davies
“Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli

Best Original Screenplay
“La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
“Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
“Loving” – Jeff Nichols
“Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
“Jackie” – Noah Oppenheim

Best Cinematography
“Silence” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – John Toll
“La La Land” – Linus Sandgren
“Arrival” – Bradford Young
“Nocturnal Animals” – Seamus McGarvey

Сентябрьский прогноз Клэйтона Дэвиса по поводу номинантов "Оскара":

Best Picture
“Silence” (Paramount Pictures)
“La La Land” (Summit Entertainment)
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” (Sony Pictures)
“Fences” (Paramount Pictures)
“Hidden Figures” (20th Century Fox)
“Lion” (The Weinstein Company)
“Loving” (Focus Features)
“Moonlight” (A24)
“Arrival” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nocturnal Animals” (Focus Features)

Best Director
Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Ang Lee – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Denis Villenueve – “Arrival“

Best Actor
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Joel Edgerton – “Loving“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Tom Hanks – “Sully“

Best Actress
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Emma Stone – “La La Land“
Annette Bening – “20th Century Women”
Ruth Negga – “Loving“
Amy Adams – “Nocturnal Animals“

Best Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson – “Silence”
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals“
Hugh Grant – “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Aaron Eckhart – “Sully“
Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight“

Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Kristen Stewart – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures”
Laura Linney – “Nocturnal Animals“

Best Adapted Screenplay
“Fences” – August Wilson
“Silence” – Jay Cocks
“Lion” – Luke Davies
“Nocturnal Animals” – Tom Ford
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – Jean-Christophe Castelli

Best Original Screenplay
“La La Land” – Damien Chazelle
“Loving” – Jeff Nichols
“Manchester by the Sea” – Kenneth Lonergan
“Moonlight” – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney
“20th Century Women” – Mike Mills

Best Cinematography
“Silence” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” – John Toll
“La La Land” – Linus Sandgren
“Arrival” – Bradford Young
“Nocturnal Animals” – Seamus McGarvey

Сентябрьский прогноз Скотт Файнберга по поводу номинантов "Оскара":

Best Picture
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Sony)
Moonlight (A24)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight) [pictured above]
Silence (Paramount)

Best Director
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

Best Actor
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) [pictured above]
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Actress
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Viola Davis (Fences)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) [pictured above]

Best Supporting Actor
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Liam Neeson (Silence)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) [pictured above]
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Dev Patel (Lion)

Best Supporting Actress
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) [pictured above]

Best Adapted Screenplay
Fences (August Wilson)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli)
Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
Silence (Jay Cocks)
Lion (Luke Davies) [pictured above]

Best Original Screenplay
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)

Best Cinematography
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll) [pictured above]
Moonlight (James Laxton)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)

Сентябрьский прогноз Криса Тэпли по поводу номинантов "Оскара":

Best Picture
"Silence" (Paramount Pictures)
"La La Land" (Lionsgate)
"Fences" (Paramount Pictures)
"Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" (Sony Pictures)
"Live By Night" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
"Hidden Figures" (20th Century Fox)
"Manchester by the Sea" (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
"Florence Foster Jenkins" (Paramount Pictures)
"Moonlight" (A24)
"Lion" (The Weinstein Co.)

Best Director
Martin Scorsese ("Silence")
Damien Chazelle ("La La Land")
Denzel Washington ("Fences")
Kenneth Lonergan ("Manchester by the Sea")
Barry Jenkins ("Moonlight")

Best Actor
Denzel Washington ("Fences")
Casey Affleck ("Manchester by the Sea")
Andrew Garfield ("Silence")
Ryan Gosling ("La La Land")
Matthew McConaughey ("Gold")

Best Actress
Emma Stone ("La La Land")
Natalie Portman ("Jackie")
Annette Bening ("20th Century Women")
Meryl Streep ("Florence Foster Jenkins")
Taraji P. Henson ("Hidden Figures")

Best Supporting Actor
Liam Neeson ("Silence")
Stephen McKinley Henderson ("Fences")
Hugh Grant ("Florence Foster Jenkins")
Lucas Hedges ("Manchester by the Sea")
Kevin Costner ("Hidden Figures")

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis ("Fences")
Michelle Williams ("Manchester by the Sea")
Naomie Harris ("Moonlight")
Octavia Spencer ("Hidden Figures")
Nicole Kidman ("Lion")

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Fences" (August Wilson)
"Silence" (Jay Cocks)
"Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" (Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli)
"Lion" (Luke Davies)
"Hidden Figures" (Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder)

Best Original Screenplay
"La La Land" (Damien Chazelle)
"Manchester by the Sea" (Kenneth Lonergan)
"Moonlight" (Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney)
"20th Century Women" (Mike Mills)
"Florence Foster Jenkins" (Nicholas Martin)

Best Cinematography
"Silence" (Rodrigo Prieto)
"La La Land" (Linus Sandgren)
"Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" (John Toll)
"Live By Night" (Robert Richardson)
"Rules Don't Apply" (Caleb Deschanel)

Первый выпуск гурусов в этом сезоне:

Top-10:
Manchester By The Sea
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
La La Land
Arrival
Fences
Silence
Loving
Moonlight
Hell or High Water
Bleed for This

Спасибо, что не Выживший. А я ведь всех предупреждал. 

В ночь с 28 на 29 февраля состоится торжественная церемония награждения лауреатов очередного "Оскара". 

Ставки сделаны, ставок больше нет. Ниже мой прогноз на "Оскар". 

My Final Oscar Prediction:
Best Picture: The Big Short
Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Best Actress: Brie Larson (Room)
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Editing: The Big Short
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant)
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing: The Revenant
Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song: 'Till It Happens To You'
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Foreign Film: Son of Saul
Best Documentary Feature: Amy
Best Documentary Short: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres Of The Shoah
Best Live-Action Short: Shok
Best Animation Short: World of Tomorrow