Прогнозы на номинантов "Оскара" от различных экспертов (Scott Feinberg, Anne Thompson, Clayton Davis, Kris Tapley, Sasha Stone, Erik Anderson):

Best Picture:
Scott Feinberg: Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, The Favourite, Bohemian Rhapsody, BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, Vice, Eighth Grade, A Quiet Place
Anne Thompson: Roma, A Star Is Born, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Vice, Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk
Clayton Davis:
Kris Tapley: BlackKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice
Sasha Stone: Roma, Green Book, A Star Is Born, Blackklansman, Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man
Erik Anderson: BlackKlansman, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice  

Best Director:
Scott Feinberg: Cuaron, Cooper, Farelly, Lee, Pawlikowski
Anne Thompson: Cuaron, Lee, Cooper, Lanthimos, McKay
Clayton Davis: Cuaron, Farelly, Lee, Cooper, Lanthimos
Kris Tapley: Lee, Pawlikowski, Cuaron, Cooper, McKay
Sasha Stone: Cuaron, Cooper, Lee, McKay, Pawlikowski
Erik Anderson: Cooper, Cuaron, Jenkins, Lee, McKay

Best Actor:
Scott Feinberg: Malek, Bale, Mortensen, Cooper, Hawke
Anne Thompson: Bale, Malek, Cooper, Mortensen, Hawke
Clayton Davis: Malek, Bale, Cooper, Mortensen, Hawke
Kris Tapley: Bale, Cooper, Dafoe, Malek, Mortensen
Sasha Stone: Bale, Malek, Cooper, Mortensen, Washington
Erik Anderson: Bale, Cooper, Malek, Mortensen, Washington

Best Actress:
Scott Feinberg: Close, Gaga, Colman, MacCarthy, Aparicio
Anne Thompson: Colman, Close, Gaga, MacCarthy, Aparicio
Clayton Davis: Close, Colman, Gaga, MacCarthy, Blunt
Kris Tapley: Aparicio, Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy
Sasha Stone: Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy, Davis
Erik Anderson: Aparicio, Close, Colman, Gaga, McCarthy

Best Supporting Actor:
Scott Feinberg: Ali, Grant, Chalamet, Elliott, Driver
Anne Thompson: Ali, Grant, Elliott, Chalamet, Driver
Clayton Davis: Ali, Grant, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott
Kris Tapley: Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott, Grant
Sasha Stone: Ali, Grant, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott
Erik Anderson: Ali, Chalamet, Driver, Elliott, Grant

Best Supporting Actress:
Scott Feinberg: Stone, Weisz, Adams, Foy, King
Anne Thompson: King, Adams, Weisz, Stone, Blunt
Clayton Davis: King, Weisz, Stone, Adams, Robbie
Kris Tapley: Adams, Blunt, King, Stone, Weisz
Sasha Stone: King, Adams, Stone, Weisz, Foy
Erik Anderson: Adams, Foy, King, Stone, Weisz

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Scott Feinberg: If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born, Black Panther, Can You Ever Forgive Me, BlacKkKlansman
Anne Thompson: BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Leave No Trace
Clayton Davis: If Beale Street Could Talk, Blackklansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me, A Star Is Born, Black Panther
Kris Tapley: BlackKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me, If Beale Street Could Talk, Leave No Trace, A Star Is Born
Sasha Stone: If Beale Street Could Talk, Blackklansman, A Star Is Born, Can You Ever Forgive Me, Black Panther
Erik Anderson: BlackKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me, The Death of Stalin, If Beale Street Could Talk, Leave No Trace, 

Best Original Screenplay:
Scott Feinberg: Green Book, The Favourite, Roma, Vice, Eighth Grade
Anne Thompson: The Favourite, Roma, Green Book, Vice, First Reformed
Clayton Davis: Green Book, The Favourite, Roma, Eighth Grade, First Reformed
Kris Tapley: Eighth Grade, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, Vice
Sasha Stone: Green Book, Roma, The Favourite, Eighth Grade, Vice
Erik Anderson: Eighth Grade, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, Vice

Best Animated Feature:
Scott Feinberg: Incredibles 2, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man, Isle of Dogs, Mirai
Anne Thompson: Incredibles 2, Spider-Man, Ralph, Isle of Dogs, Mirai
Clayton Davis: Spider-Man, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Early Man
Kris Tapley: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man
Sasha Stone: Spider-Man, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, The Grinch
Erik Anderson: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man

Best Foreign Language Film:
Scott Feinberg: Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Burning
Anne Thompson: Roma, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Never Look Away
Clayton Davis: Roma, Cold War, Capernaum, Shoplifters, The Guilty
Kris Tapley: Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Roma, Cold War
Sasha Stone: Roma, Cold War, Capernaum, Burning, Shoplifters
Erik Anderson: The Guilty, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Roma. Cold War

Best Cinematography:
Scott Feinberg: Roma, Cold War, First Man, The Favourite, A Star Is Born
Anne Thompson: Roma, The Favourite, First Man, A Star Is Born, Cold War
Clayton Davis: Roma, First Man, A Star Is Born, The Favourite, Cold War
Kris Tapley: Cold War, The Favourite, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born
Sasha Stone: Roma, A Star Is Born, First Man, The Favourite, Cold War
Erik Anderson:  Cold War, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, A Star Is Born

Best Production Design:
Scott Feinberg: The Favourite, First Man, Roma, Fantastic Beasts, Bohemian Rhapsody
Anne Thompson: Black Panther, Roma, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, First Man
Clayton Davis: The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther, First Man, Roma
Kris Tapley: Fantastic Bests, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma
Sasha Stone: Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite, Roma, First Man
Erik Anderson: Black Panther, The Favourite, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

Best Costume Design:
Scott Feinberg: Fantastic Beasts, Black Panther, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots
Anne Thompson: Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots, Bohemian Rhapsody
Clayton Davis: The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots
Kris Tapley: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots
Sasha Stone: Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots, Bohemian Rhapsody
Erik Anderson:  Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Editing:
Scott Feinberg: A Star Is Born, First Man, Bohemian Rhapsody, Roma, Vice
Anne Thompson: A Star Is Born, Roma, The Favourite, Vice, First Man
Clayton Davis: Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star Is Born, Green Book, Vice, First Man
Kris Tapley: Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice
Sasha Stone: First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice, Blackklansman
Erik Anderson: Blackklansman, First Man, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Scott Feinberg: Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Stan & Ollie
Anne Thompson: Vice, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther
Clayton Davis: Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, Border
Kris Tapley: Border, Suspiria, Vice
Sasha Stone: Black Panther, Vice, Mary Queen of Scots
Erik Anderson: Black Panther, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan&Ollie

Best Original Score:
Scott Feinberg: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, Isle of Dogs, A Quiet Place
Anne Thompson: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, BlackKKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns
Clayton Davis: If Beale Street Could Talk, First Man, Isle of Dogs, Blackklansman, Mary Poppins Returns
Kris Tapley: Blackklansman, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns
Sasha Stone: First Man, Blackklansman, Mary Poppins Returns, Isle of Dogs, If Beale Street Could Talk
Erik Anderson: Black Panther, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Sound Editing:
Scott Feinberg: First Man, A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Anne Thompson: A Quite Place, First Man, A Star Is Born, Roma, Black Panther
Clayton Davis: First Man, Black Panther, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Roma
Kris Tapley: First Man, Mission Impossible - Fallout, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Roma
Sasha Stone: First Man, Ready Player One, Roma, A Star Is Born, A Quiet Place
Erik Anderson: First Man, Mission Impossible - Fallout, A Quiet Place, Ready Player One, Roma

Best Sound Mixing:
Scott Feinberg: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma
Anne Thompson: A Star Is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, A Quiet Place, Roma, First Man
Clayton Davis: A Star Is Born, First Man, Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Roma
Kris Tapley: Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star Is Born
Sasha Stone: A Star Is Born, Mary Poppins Returns, First Man, A Quiet Place, Bohemian Rhapsody
Erik Anderson: Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, A Quiet Place, Roma, A Star Is Born

Best Visual Effects:
Scott Feinberg: First Man, Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Ready Player One, Welcome to Marwen
Anne Thompson: Black Panther, Ready Player One, Avengers: Infinity War, FIrst Man, Mary Poppins Returns
Clayton Davis: Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story
Kris Tapley: Avengers: Infinity War, First Man, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen
Sasha Stone: Black Panther, First Man, Ready Player One, Avengers: Infinity War, Welcome to Marwen
Erik Anderson: Avengers: Infinity War, Black Panther, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Welcome to Marwen

Мой прогноз на лауреатов Critics' Choice Awards:

BEST PICTURE Roma
BEST DIRECTOR Alfonso Cuaron – Roma
BEST ACTOR Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
BEST ACTRESS Glenn Close – The Wife
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Mahershala Ali - Green Book
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE Black Panther
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Green Book
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY BlacKkKlansman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Roma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN (Art Direction) Black Panther
BEST EDITING First Man
BEST COSTUME DESIGN The Favourite
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP Vice
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Avengers: Infinity War
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
BEST ACTION MOVIE Black Panther
BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE A Quiet Place
BEST COMEDY The Favourite
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY Christian Bale – Vice
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY Olivia Colman – The Favourite
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Roma
BEST SONG Shallow – A Star Is Born
BEST SCORE First Man

Мой прогноз на лауреатов очередного "Золотого Глобуса" в основных номинациях:

Лучший фильм (драма): A Star Is Born
Лучшая фильм (комедия): Green Book
Лучший режиссер: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Лучший сценарий: The Favourite
Лучшая мужская роль (драма): Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Лучшая женская роль (драма): Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Лучшая мужская роль (комедия): Christian Bale, Vice
Лучшая женская роль (комедия): Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Лучшая мужская роль второго плана: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Лучшая женская роль второго плана: Amy Adams, Vice
Лучшая музыка: Mary Poppins Returns
Лучшая песня: “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
Лучший анимационный фильм: Incredibles 2
Лучший зарубежный фильм: Roma

Лучший Фильм (10)
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. Black Panther
5. The Favourite
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Vice
8. If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. Bohemian Rhapsody

Лучший режиссер: (5)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Peter Farrelly (Green Book)

Лучшая мужская роль: (5)
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Лучшая женская роль: (5)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)

Лучшая мужская роль второго плана: (5)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

Лучшая женская роль второго плана: (5)
Amy Adams (Vice)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Claire Foy (First Man)

Лучший оригинальный сценарий: (5)
Green Book
The Favourite
Vice
Roma
Eighth Grade

Лучший адаптированный сценарий: (5)
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
If Beale Street Could Talk
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Лучший монтаж: (5)
Black Panther
A Star Is Born
First Man
Vice
Roma

Лучшая операторская работа: (5)
Roma
If Beale Street Could Talk
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man

Лучшее художественное оформление: (5)
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
First Man
Roma

Лучшие костюмы: (5)
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Bohemian Rhapsody

Лучший грим и прическа: (3)
Vice
Black Panther
Border

Лучшая музыка к фильму: (5)
First Man
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs

Лучшая песня: (5)
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"Trip A Little Light Fantastic" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"I'll Fight" (RBG)
''Girl in the Movies'' (Dumplin)

Лучшие визуальные эффекты: (5)
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One

Лучший звук: (5)
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
First Man
A Quiet Place
Bohemian Rhapsody

Лучший монтаж звука: (5)
A Quiet Place
Black Panther
First Man
A Star Is Born
Mission: Impossible - Fallout

Лучший анимационный фильм: (5)
Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
Mirai

Лучший фильм на иностранном языке: (5)
Roma (Mexico)
Cold War (Poland)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Never Look Away (Germany)

Лучший ансамбль:
A Star Is Born
Black Panther
The Favourite
Crazy Rich Asians
Vice

Лучшая мужская роль:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Лучшая женская роль:
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Glenn Close, The Wife
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Лучшая мужская роль второго плана:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Adam Driver, Blackkklansman
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Лучшая женская роль второго плана:
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man

Best Motion Picture (Drama)
“BlackKklansman”
''Black Panther''
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star is Born”

Best Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Vice”

Best Actor (Drama)
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Hugh Jackman, ''The Front Runner''
Ryan Gosling, “First Man”
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”
John C. Reilly, “Stan & Ollie”

Best Actress (Drama)
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Toni Collette, “Hereditary”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Natalie Portman, ''Vox Lux''
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron, ''Tully''
Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Adam Driver, “BlackKklansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Timothee Chalamet, ''Beautiful Boy''

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Nicole Kidman, “Boy Erased”
Emma Stone, ''The Favourite''
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Best Director
Bradley Cooper, “A Star is Born”
Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Yorgos Lantimos, ''The Favourite''
Spike Lee, “BlackKklansman”

Best Screenplay
''BlacKkKlansman''
''Green Book''
“The Favourite”
“A Star is Born”
“Vice”

Best Original Score
“First Man” (Justin Hurwitz)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Nicholas Britell)
“Mary Poppins Returns” (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)
“Mary Queen of Scots” (Max Richter)
“Widows” (Hans Zimmer)

Best Animated Feature
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Smallfoot”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”

Best Foreign Language Film
“Capernaum”
“Cold War”
''Girl''
“Roma”
“Shoplifters”

Мой прогноз по поводу номинантов будущего "Оскара" от 4 ноября:

Лучший Фильм 
1. A Star Is Born
2. Roma
3. Green Book
4. The Favourite
5. BlacKkKlansman
6. First Man
7. Black Panther
8. Vice
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Widows

Лучший Режиссер 
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Damien Chazelle, First Man

Лучший Актер 
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man
5. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Лучшая Актриса
1. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
3. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
4. Viola Davis, Widows
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Лучший Актер 2 плана 
1 .Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
3. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Лучшая Актриса 2 плана 
1. Amy Adams, Vice
2. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Claire Foy, First Man
5. Emma Stone, The Favourite

Лучший адаптированный сценарий 
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. Widows
3. First Man
4. A Star Is Born
5. If Beale Street Could Talk

Лучший оригинальный сценарий 
1. The Favourite
2. Green Book
3. Roma
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade

Лучшая работа оператора 
1. A Star Is Born
2. Cold War
3. First Man
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Roma

Лучший монтаж 
1. First Man
2. A Star Is Born
3. Roma
4. Green Book
5. Black Panther

Лучшие визуальные эффекты 
1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. Ready Player One
5. Mortal Engines

Лучший анимационный фильм 
1. Incredibles 2
2. Ralph Breaks the Internet
3. Isle of Dogs
4. The Grinch
5. Smallfoot

Отгремели фестивальные показы в Венеции, Торонто и Теллурайде, так что можно уже говорить об основных оскаровских фаворитах этого года. Исходя из прогнозов заокеанских аналитиков, нас ожидает битва между тремя лошадками: "Звезда родилась", "Человек на Луне" и "Рома". На томатах наивысший рейтинг имеет фильм Альфонсо Куарона, но у него есть существенный минус для гонки: он испаноязычный. Еще никогда главный "Оскар" не брал фильм на иностранном языке.

Правда в последние годы в индустрии некоторые тенденции поменялись и сейчас возможная победа мексиканской ленты уже не кажется явной утопией. А ведь еще лет десять назад многие покрутили бы пальцем у виска в ответ на подобный прогноз. Во всяком случае Энн Томпсон (Indiewire) ставит именно на "Рому" и пророчит обладателю "Золотого льва" победы в лучшем фильме, режиссуре и сценарии. А вот Клэйтон Дэвис (awardscircuit.com) прогнозирует победу мюзикла "Звезда родилась" (фильм, режиссер). На победу "Первого человека" ставят гораздо меньше, но в тройке лучших он стабильно мелькает.

Интересно, что если "Оскар" выиграет именно "Рома", то это будет второй год подряд, когда будущего лауреата Киноакадемии поддерживает жюри Венеции. Напомню, что в минувшем сезоне свой триумфальный путь "Форма воды" начала именно с победы на итальянском фестивале. А ведь до этого лауреаты "Золотого льва" и "Оскара" не были идентичными аж со времен "Гамлета" (1948). Совпадение? Не думаю!

Российский критик Антон Долин славится достаточно либеральными взглядами на кино и оценивает большинство картин вполне аргументированно и объективно (я имею ввиду, что у него нет очевидных "перекосов" в артхаус либо мейнстрим). После завершения Венецианского фестиваля именно "Рому" он назвал эпохальным событием и отметил, что фильм Альфонсо Куарона стоит на две головы выше, нежели все остальные участники этого действа. Также он отметил, что "Рома" оказалась на 1 строчке рейтинга как итальянских, так и зарубежных критиков. Так что определенные выводы после премьеры "Ромы" можно сделать. Это по сути единственный на данный момент релиз 2018 года, который практически все обозреватели называют полноценным шедевром.

I. Золотая пальмовая ветвь:
1. «Burning»
2. «Capernaum»
3. «Lazzaro felice»
4. «Cold War»
5. «Shoplifters»

II. Остальные категории:
Гран-при (GRAND PRIX) – Cold War / Lazzaro felice
Лучший режиссер (BEST DIRECTOR) – Lazzaro felice / Cold War
Лучший сценарий (BEST SCREENPLAY) – Shoplifters / Burning
Лучшая мужская роль (BEST ACTOR) – Marcello Fonte, Dogman / John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Лучшая женская роль (BEST ACTRESS) – Joanna Kulig, Cold War / Zhao Tao, Ash Is Purest White
Приз жюри (JURY PRIZE) - Leto / BlacKkKlansman

Мои ранние майские прогнозы на номинантов "Оскара-2019":

Лучший фильм 
Backseat
Beautiful Boy
Black Panther
Boy Erased
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Queen of Scots
A Star is Born
Widows

Лучший режиссер
Damien Chazelle - First Man
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born
Joel Edgerton - Boy Erased
Barry Jenkins - If Beale Street Could Talk
Adam McKay - Backseat

Лучший актер 
Christian Bale - Backseat
Steve Carell - Beautiful Boy
Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
Ryan Gosling - First Man
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Лучшая актриса 
Viola Davis - Widows
Glenn Close - The Wife
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Felicity Jones - On the Basis of Sex
Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Лучший актер второго плана
Timotee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
Kyle Chandler - First Man
Russell Crowe - Boy Erased
Stephen James - If Beale Street Could Talk
Sam Rockwell - Backseat

Лучшая актриса второго плана 
Amy Adams - Backseat
Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Claire Foy - First Man
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots

Лучший адаптированный сценарий 
Boy Erased
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Widows

Лучший оригинальный сценарий 
Backseat
Destroyer
The Favourite
Mid 90-s
On the Вasis of Sex

Лучшая работа оператора 
Black Panther (Rachel Morrison)
First Man (Linus Sandgren)
If Beale Street Could Talk (James Laxton)
Peterloo (Dick Pope)
A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)

Лучшие визуальные эффекты 
Avengers: Infinity War
Mortal Engines
Mowgli
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Лучший анимационный фильм 
Early Man
The Grinch
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks The Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2